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Races Come Down To Wire

President, Governor's Races Too Close To Call

UPDATED: 6:09 pm EST November 1, 2004

On the eve of Election Day, the races for president and governor in New Hampshire are too close to call.

The final numbers in the WMUR-Granite State tracking polls have both races separated by a single point, well within the polls' margin of error.

Democratic challenger John Kerry has 49 percent of the vote, compared with 48 percent for President George W. Bush, according to the poll. One percent support Ralph Nader, and just 1 percent are undecided.

The poll has a 3.1 percent margin of error.

"This is like the 12th inning of a Red Sox-Yankees game," political analyst Dante Scala said. "You can look at which team is better through the year, but in the 12th inning, nobody knows."

Voters in the poll were split along party lines, with independents narrowly supporting Kerry. Men were more likely to support Bush, while women favored Kerry.

The top three issues have been the same throughout the campaign.

"The No. 1 one issue is the war in Iraq, the second is jobs and the economy, and the third is the war on terrorism," said Andy Smith, of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

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When voters were asked about the war in Iraq, they tended to favor Kerry on the issue. If asked about the war on terrorism, they tended to favor Bush. Although domestic issues tend to favor Democrats, a strong New Hampshire economy could help Bush, analysts said.

The state is predicting record high turnout, which tends to help challengers. But the weather may also play a part, with rain threatening to slow turnout.

New Hampshire was pivotal in the 2000 election, narrowly voting for Bush. Had the state's four electoral votes gone for Al Gore, he would have been president, barring recounts in other states.

Tight Race For Governor

The race for governor is just as tight. The WMUR-Granite State poll shows Gov. Craig Benson with the support of 47 percent of voters, and Democratic challenger John Lynch has 46 percent, with a 3.1 percent margin of error.

There may be slightly more flexibility among voters in this race, as 5 percent remain undecided. The two candidates engaged in last-minute campaigning Monday to try to capture the few remaining votes.

"I'm just getting out and meeting people, talking with people all over the state about my interest in restoring integrity in the governor's office and putting the people's interest of New Hampshire first again," Lynch said.

"The great thing we have in this state is an electorate that really gets what the true messages are," Benson said. "And I've been out telling people we balanced the budget without a tax increase. We created a surplus. We're fighting the big drug companies."

Neither candidate has held a solid lead during the final stretch to the election. The candidates said poll numbers don't matter.

"The only poll that really counts is what happens tomorrow," Lynch said. "And I'm very, very much looking forward to tomorrow."

The candidates don't seem too surprised that this has shaped up to be such a tight race.

"My race is probably indicative of the presidential race, more than it is just about anything else," Benson said. "And it's just about getting the message out that we are so lucky to be a presidential primary state and now a swing state. Look at all the attention we're getting."

The candidates planned to continue campaigning into Monday night and will crisscross the state Tuesday, making stops at several polling locations.

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